If we had to pick one single number on a Shopify store that drives the most AOV without any design work, it's the free-shipping threshold. Not the number itself, the math behind it. Most brands pick a round number that "feels right" and leave it there for two years. The ones that A/B test the threshold against their actual order distribution typically lift AOV by 15–30%.
This post is the exact framework we use when we set a free-shipping bar for a client store.
Why thresholds work
A shopper has one unit in their cart. The cart drawer shows:
You're $9 away from free shipping, with a progress bar at 70%.
Two things happen in their head: loss aversion (I'd be paying $7 shipping on a $34 order, that's dumb) and endowed progress (I'm already 70% there). Adding another unit becomes the obvious move. The friction of "should I buy more" collapses to "what else do I need."
On supplement, wellness and beauty stores we've worked on, a well-tuned threshold lifts AOV by $8–$18 per order. On 1,000 orders a month that's $8,000–$18,000 of revenue per month from a single input.
The formula
Three steps, no calculator needed.
Step 1: Find your current AOV
Shopify Admin → Analytics → Dashboard. The number is called "Average order value." Note it. For most supplement stores we see, this is $42–$68.
Step 2: Set the threshold at AOV + 30%
If your AOV is $50, set the threshold at $65. If your AOV is $60, set it at $78.
The reasoning: too low (at or below current AOV) and you give free shipping to orders that would already pay it. Too high (double AOV or more) and the bar feels unreachable and does no work. +30% is the sweet spot: a majority of orders will see the bar activate as a "close enough to try" prompt, and a meaningful share will cross it.
Step 3: Round to a cart-friendly number
Round to a number that a shopper can hit by adding one product. If your core product is $34 and your calculated threshold is $65, bump to $68 (two units) or $75 (two units + accessory). Round down from "AOV + 30%" more often than up; you want the threshold to feel close.
Four mistakes we see constantly
1. The threshold is below your core product price
If you sell $34 bottles and your threshold is $30, every order gets free shipping and the bar does nothing. The threshold should force the second-unit decision.
2. The threshold is round-number-driven, not AOV-driven
$50, $75 and $100 are popular because they're round. They're almost never optimal. Supplement AOVs rarely land cleanly at those tiers.
3. There's no visible progress bar
Just saying "free shipping over $65" at the top of the site does maybe 20% of the work. The real lift comes from a dynamic "you're $9 away" message updating in the cart drawer in real time. If your cart drawer doesn't have one, that's the fix.
4. The threshold is "forever"
Your AOV moves as your catalog grows. We check the threshold against AOV quarterly. If AOV has risen 15% and the threshold hasn't, the bar is doing less work than it could.
The three thresholds to test
When we set up a store, we A/B test three thresholds for the first 60 days:
- AOV + 20%: the "easy" bar
- AOV + 30%: the "nudge" bar
- AOV + 50%: the "stretch" bar
The winner is almost always the +30% or +50% version, but which one depends on your category. For impulse categories (snacks, candles) the +20% bar wins because the stretch feels dishonest. For considered categories (supplements, skincare routines) the +50% bar often wins because buyers are already thinking "I need more of this anyway."
The cart drawer is where this lives
A free-shipping threshold without a prominent cart-drawer progress bar is a half-built feature. On every Shopify store we build, the cart drawer shows:
- Current cart subtotal
- Amount remaining to free shipping, in dollars
- A visual progress bar at the exact percentage
- A "you unlocked free shipping" state when crossed
Horizon ships with a free-shipping progress feature in the native cart drawer; most third-party cart drawer apps include one too. If you want this plus a product upsell inside the cart drawer, we usually install Kaching Cart Drawer. The free-shipping bar and the "add this to your order" slot both live in the same component, which makes it a single setup.
What a tuned threshold is worth
On a store doing 1,000 orders a month at $55 AOV:
- Starting state: no progress bar, $50 threshold. Negligible AOV impact.
- After tuning: $72 threshold (AOV + 30%, rounded), cart-drawer progress bar.
- Measured lift: AOV from $55 to $68, over 60 days.
- Monthly revenue impact: $13 extra per order × 1,000 orders = $13,000 / month.
No new traffic. No new products. One number on one page.
If you want us to look at your current threshold and cart drawer and send a specific recommendation, tell us about your store. We'll include the exact number we'd test next, with the math.